Written by: Averroes
(1.0) Introduction
Justin Trudeau 23rd Prime Minister of Canada and in his 3rd term (aged 49), hailing from the Liberal party in Canada, he is able to govern a country in a minority. Though it does not mean he does not have enough seats. In Malaysia, we can read an article on commanding majority of the confidence of Parliament or Dewan Rakyat here. He could potentially face a vote-of-no-confidence.
A minority government means is that, he has enough seats (barely) to secure to be a government, but not enough to legislate new laws. This is similar when our country under the Mahiaddin administration had mere command and his confidence was skeptical. Many of commentators claim that there are many issues in the country, in which the re-elected Prime Minister had no exact mandate to cater to it.
He recently became the Prime Minister again with a minority government, through an election which costs CD$600 million (Canadian dollars). It costed Canadians five weeks, just for the elections. The outcome was another similar parliament than before back in 2019. He won again on the 20th September 2021 under the 44th federal election, two years earlier that the scheduled election.
To be clear, it was a 'Snap Election' where the Canadian government has the prerogative between 4 years and 18 months to call for elections. This is provided under section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867, subject to be sooner dissolved by the Governor General.
Due to that, because Justin's government was a minority, he exercised such prerogative. Only 62% of Canadians voted during the elections, the lowest voter turnout since 2008.
That strategy was for him to have majority so that more policies could be exercised in relations to the pandemic and climate change, as well as indigenous communities. Temperature has been rising in the country. He promised to the people that he intends to build 1.4 million homes, a $10 per day childcare and a net-zero emissions oil and gas industry by 2050.
In 338 seats contested, he secured 159 seats which is only an added four (4) members since 2019. He was short of eleven (11) members required for 170 majority seats in the House of Commons. Their adversity, the Conservatives led by Erin O'Toole, maintained a 119 seats, with the left-wing the New Democrats with twenty-five (25) seats, while the Bloc Québécois thirty three (33) seats.
(1.2) How the minority government could manage the situation
Due to a minority government, they would have to find common grounds and reconcile with the opposition. Without the support from them, it would be very elusive to pass new laws or bills and to communicate policies effectively in the legislature. In one way, it could be said as a check and balance, where the opposition is actively involved in governmental affairs, since both government and opposition umbers are almost at par.
In Malaysia, we are facing a similar situation where both sides have signed an MoU to cooperate and have better participation from all parties and stakeholders. At the same time, a minority government would have to enter into compromises and form a general consensus to ensure a good flow, especially during these dire times.
If not, urgent matters such as foreign policy and budgets are heavily constrained, no drastic or rapid action can be done promptly without a positive response from the opposition. In totality, at face value this can be a good sign of accountability, since the minority government would be pressured and have to be more transparent.
(2.0) The hassle
With Justin's return to administration, there are several overarching problems that may incur, which he was criticised for. One of which includes plans to extend or maximise spending, which could potentially boil up inflation and increase interests rates. He asserts that more spending is to assist Canadian families who were affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. He insistently ducked questions on inflation.
The Liberals pledged to have CD$78 billion in their new spending that covers five years, which is 4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets states additional fiscal spending could result to risks of inflation. Also, Dough Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal as alluded that, heavy fiscal support and some upside bias from raising taxes, widens deficits in the medium term.
20% of Canadians believe that climate change is a main issue in the country and Justin was criticised that he was not doing enough on solving it.
(3.0) References;
Smith, F. (September, 2021) Trudeau's return to power with big spending plans could fuel Canada's hot inflation. Retrieved from, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trudeaus-return-power-with-big-spending-plans-could-fuel-canadas-hot-inflation-2021-09-24/
AlJazeera. (September, 2021) An uncertain election victory for Canada’s Trudeau. Retrieved from, https://www.aljazeera.com/podcasts/2021/9/24/an-uncertain-election-victory-for-canadas-trudeau
B. Suresh Ram. (September, 2021) Trudeau's gamble fails to materialise. Retrieved from, https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/columnists/2021/09/731032/trudeaus-gamble-fails-materialise
BU News Service. (September, 2021) Trudeau’s Snap Election Falls Short of Majority Government, Yields Low Voter Turnout. Retrieved from, http://bunewsservice.com/trudeaus-snap-election-falls-short-of-majority-government-yields-low-voter-turnout/
Argitis, T., & Bolongaro, K. (September, 2021) Trudeau Wins Historic Third Term But Falls Short of Majority. Retrieved from, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-21/trudeau-wins-third-term-as-canada-prime-minister-ctv-projects
Ljunggren, D. (September, 2021) Early Canada election call backfires on Trudeau, who now trails in polls. Retrieved from, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/early-canada-election-call-backfires-trudeau-who-now-trails-polls-2021-09-03/
Library of Parliament. (2021) Our Country, Our Parliament: An Introduction to How Canada’s Parliament Works. Retrieved from, https://lop.parl.ca/About/Parliament/Education/ourcountryourparliament/pdfs/Booklet-e.pdf
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