Written by: Averroes
(1.0) How it all began
For Russia, it is difficult for them to recognise, since throughout history and centuries, Ukraine had somewhat been an integral part of the Soviet Union. The majority of Russians feel that Ukrainians are ethnically close to Russia.
Ukraine during the Soviet times were heavily relied upon by Russia for their industrial and defence production sector.
Vladimir Putin, Russian President published an essay whereby emphasising that Ukrainians and Russians are one people. Currently, most Ukrainians are able to speak Russian as either their primary or secondary language.
After Ukraine's independence in 1991, Ukraine-Russian relationship were stable and fine. Ukraine was considered to be a satellite state of Russia where Russian politicians, oligarchs and businesses thrived.
Coming to the Orange Revolution (2004-2005) situation changed when a protest spurred in Kyiv which opposed Russian influence over the country's politics and the urge to institutionalise democracy.
(2.0) The 2014 attack (annexation of Crimea)
Until 2014, Ukraine was building stronger ties with North Atlantic Treaty (NATO) and the European Union (EU). The relationship soured further when Russia expanded their territorial claims onto Crimea, due to Ukraine's new provocative foreign policy.
Former President, Yanukovych made a move to establish more closer political and economic ties with the EU rather than financial assistance from Russia. As Ukraine distance themselves away from Russia, this is where the point of conflict grew in 2013.
This was due to the magnifying protests against him, which subsequently led to the Euromaidan and his eventual ousting as he refused to sign an association agreement with the EU.
Therefore, Russia decided to invade Ukraine as early as 2014. Russia believed that Ukraine's ties with Russia was slowly diminishing and the prospects of Ukraine joining NATO threatened Russia's sovereignty, security and economy.
Russia's decision to invade was to save and protect ethnic Russians from being persecuted and a measure of self-defence from the EU and NATO borders from crawling closer to Russia.
By joining NATO, Russia's Black Sea Fleet would be undermined. After Russia invaded Ukraine by deploying forces covertly to Crimea, they held a referendum there and the results were that, Crimea had been incorporated as part of Russia, despite it seen as illegal.
(2.1) International Law Violations after 2014
According to the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) a number of human rights violations occurred in Crimea, especially among the Crimean Tatars minorities.
200,000 Russians were reported to have moved to Crimea and occupied the region.
Russia's attack violated the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, (non-binding) whereby Russia together with the United States and United Kingdom were committed to respect the independence and sovereignty of the Ukrainian borders as well as to refrain from exerting threat or the use of force.
UN General Assembly (UNGA) Resolutions A/RES/75/29, December 7, 2020 and A/RES/75/192, December 16, 2020 denied Russia's temporary occupation occupation of Crimea and reaffirms the non-recognition of the annexation.
However, according to article 11 of the UN Charter, the resolutions are only recommendations. In the UN Security Council (UNSC), Russia could potentially veto any Resolutions involving the newly acquired Crimea and hence, the only Resolution adopted was regarding the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 in Resolution 2166 (2014), 21.7.2014.
Countries in the UNSC only expressed their opinions, either to condemn or clarify on the invasion. However, even if no Resolutions were passed, it did somehow altered member States reactions and their perceptions toward the dispute.
So far, only 19 countries recognise Russia's annexation among those including Afghanistan, China, Cuba, North Korea.
As a result of the invasion, the Minsk Agreement or Protocol was signed for a ceasefire and that political processes were initiated to avert further crises. Both sides agreed to release detained persons and hostages and the withdrawal of armed separatist troop, mercenaries and military equipment as well as a buffer zone.
However, the Minsk Agreement failed due to illegal election results in the Donbas region and that the separatists refuse to disarm themselves or abandon disputed areas to the Ukrainian government. Due to the failure of the Minsk Agreement, the Minsk II materialised as a new replacement.
Minsk II was to have a ceasefire, withdrawing heavy military equipment, illegal military formations, militants and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory, releasing hostages and illegally held persons, restore territorial borders in the conflict zone.
There were also political commitments, such as constitutional changes to Donetsk and Luhansk with some autonomy. The terms of the Minks II were adopted in the UNSC Resolution 2202 (2015), but again it is not legally binding due to Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
However, Minsk II was also violated, due to both sides not fulfilling the terms.
(3.0) The 2022 attack
On the 24th February 2022, Russia mobilised their troops into Ukraine.
Tensions escalated when Russia then supported separatist movements in eastern Ukraine in the Donetsk and Luhansk region, both known as the Donbas. Separatists captured several cities and towns and declared independence.
Russia supported the separatists as they wanted to protect ethnic Russians in the region that encompassed the majority of the populace. In other words, these two regions are also known as Novorossiya or New Russia, a culturally historical area close to Russian nationalism.
Soon, Russia circled Ukraine by deploying troops along the Ukrainian border in what seems to be a looming attack. It was from President Vlodymyr Zelensky's administration that their constant leaning towards the Western world had neglected their relationship with their Russian neighbour.
The end goal was to destabilise Ukraine and make the country submit back to Putin's sphere and demonstrate Russia's powerful military arsenal, displaying their might and prowess on the world stage. It was the intent to defend their nation and boost Putin's political career.
Since the beginning of the war, Russia had resorted to a military strategy known as the 'hybrid war'.
It involves the military aggression with elements of propaganda, falsity, trade and economic pressure, energy blockade, terror and intimidation of Ukrainian citizens, cyber-attacks, denying a war even when large scale forces are deployed, use of pro-Urssian forces and satellite states and the blaming of the other side for their own crimes.
(4.0) International Law Violations in 2022
(4.1) UN Charter
Jus cogens is the international legal principle or norm whereby, regardless of any treaty, States are bound by international law, including acts of aggression, prohibited under peremptory norms.
Both Russia and Ukraine are bound by the UN Charter. There are several provisions that we may view, particularly under;
* Article 2.1, respect for sovereignty
* Article 1.2, right to self-determination;
Here, Ukraine may have violated this provision, since the ethnic Russians in Crimea and eastern Ukraine deserve to self-determination and form their own State.
However, this may not necessarily mean Russia could use this as a pretext to invade, since it was not proven Ukraine oppressed the ethnic Russians.
* Article 2.7, principle of non-interference;
Here, both the Western Bloc and Russia violated this provision, as the US and EU supported the Euromaidan movement and the Orange Revolution. Russia on the other hand had political puppets in Ukraine and supported separatists while later invading.
* Article 2.3, all member States shall resolve their international disputes by peaceful means
* Article 2.4, States are obliged to refrain from their international relations with the threat or use of force;
Since ethnic Russians (according to Kremlin) are treated with discrimination and that a cop d'état happened in Ukraine which may endanger Russia, this may be a justification to declare war on Ukraine. Russia may also declare war to defend their sovereignty from the encroachment of NATO and her western enemies.
Intervention is usually permitted in times of gross human rights violations, genocide, uncontrolled economic and social chaos and lack of internal security. Though it has to be proportionate and necessary.
* Article 51 of the UN Charter allows member states' the right to individual or collective self-defense when an armed attack occurs, and Chapter VII allows the UNSC to allow military actions to maintain peace or restore international peace and security.
The UNGA Resolution 2625 (XXV) of 24.10.1970 also affirms article 2.4 whereby States should refrain from threat or use of force against territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.
Commentators argue that Russia's justification is obnoxious, since Ukraine have not attacked Russia under any viable ways. Secondly, even if Russia wanted to defend the ethnic minorities in the Donbas region, why would they attack the entirety of Ukraine, not just the related areas.
Thirdly, even if Russia is fighting against alleged genocide in Ukraine, they are only mere speculations and no evidence to suggest otherwise.
(4.2) Human Rights Violations
Apart from the Budapest Memorandum, UN Charter and UNSC Resolutions, there is also the Helsinki Accords which is only moral in nature, non-binding sets out rules which countries such as Russia and Ukraine have to adhere to.
They include refraining threat. or use of force, inviolability of frontiers, territorial integrity of States, non-intervention in internal affairs, and the respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, including freedom of though, conscience and religion.
The US Secretary of State and other foreign government officials claimed that Russian military had attacked civilians, destroyed protected sites and other violations of conducts during war. Russia was accused of also using ballistic missiles and explosive weapons on densely populated areas.
These violations were contrary to the Geneva Convention and Protocols which both Russia and Ukraine are a party to. However, not all the protocols were accepted by both States.
There were airstrikes and attacks on civilians, destruction of hospitals, mining areas, humanitarian corridors for evacuations, humanitarian goods brought in, damaging residential neighbourhoods and preschools.
Ukraine was also said to violate international laws when they publicly displayed Russian soldiers on news conferences, which is a form of humiliation and insult.
(5.0) Solution to the problem
It would be relatively impossible to reach a diplomatic solution since the United Nations, United States and the European Union have a negative disposition towards Russia. Any attempts for peace settlement would be marred by political nuances.
Therefore, it is suggested that a third party should be involved instead to settle the disputes between the two nations.
Since Putin is nostalgic about the old days of the Soviet Union and the need to maintain geo-political spheres over their former territories, intervention by other States signals more disputes and disagreements.
Putin wants to control the government of Ukraine and ensure Russia's survivability and continued presence on the global stage. Therefore, if there are any attempts for mediation and peace negotiations, it should be conducted in a safe environment and presided by a neutral party.
The mediation should allow both countries to be satisfied with the settlements and the proposed solutions to be achieved, without being biased or have any interests.
Ukraine is also taking Russia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and other international tribunals, but the issues of jurisdiction are the main hot topics to be considered. Sanctions had been imposed, but it also came at a cost at the sanctioning countries economy, including prices of goods and petroleum.
(6.0) Conclusion
What is there hope after the conflict?
For now, there are gradual steps to achieve negotiations for peace, Hopefully, after the war ends, parties liable for any violations should be responsible and accountable for their actions. This conflict should serve as a lesson for all States out there to avoid any potential violence and reach consensus on development and progression instead.
(7.0) References;
Congressional Research Service. (October, 2021) Ukraine: Background, Conflict with Russia, and U.S. Policy. Retrieved from, https://crsreports.congress.gov
G. Bartosz. (May, 2020) The Russo-Ukrainian Conflict. Manhattan College. Retrieved from, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349948624
Douban. A. (2015) International Organizations and Settlement of the Conflict in Ukraine. International Law Department, Belarussian State University.
Marcinko, M. & Rogala, B. (2017) The Ukrainian Crisis: A Test for International Law? Polish Review of International and European Law. 1(5), Pp 37-71. Retrieved from, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323346655
Congressional Research Service. (March, 2022) The Law of War and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Retrieved from, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10710
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